the vast majority of the time that's most of the money you can hope for right there

Well, this is an interesting area. It is my opinion that if they knew what they were talking about -- if they could do the primary job they are supposed to do, which is figure out what audiences want and give them that -- they would know when they have produced a Titanic. They would have a far more consistent, objective means of evaluating creative works and deciding how well they align with audience interest.

They don't.

I also think it is this general failure that is responsible for stagnation in other creative fields -- for instance, newspaper comics. Given a new Dilbert or Calvin and Hobbes, the syndicates will almost without exception decide it is useless to them, and give it a pass.

I know this because that's what all of them did, but one, to the original Dilbert and the original Calvin and Hobbes. They simply have no tools to gauge this stuff, and if asked, would probably deny such things could ever exist.